The SpaceX IPO: What Lies Behind the Largest Public Offering in History

The risks, the geopolitical impact and the financial lessons of SpaceX's US$2 trillion IPO.

Lucas Maia (Junior at GN Poli)

SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace company, made history with a public listing that surpassed every other offering ever recorded worldwide. On June 12, the company raised US$85.7 billion in its initial public offering (IPO), an amount that includes an over-allotment option, known as a greenshoe, a mechanism that allows the offering's underwriters to sell an additional block of shares to meet strong investor demand.

On the debut of its shares under the ticker SPCX, the company closed its first trading session up 19%, lifting its valuation to more than US$2 trillion and making Musk the world's first trillionaire. To understand this remarkable impact on the financial markets, it is necessary to understand SpaceX's value-creation potential.

Valuations of the largest IPOs in the U.S. market (US$ billions) (Source: FactSet and Bankrate)

The business model is unique. Founded in 2002, the company has evolved from being merely a rocket launch service provider into a space infrastructure and telecommunications holding company. Today, SpaceX operates on three main fronts: 1. the space segment (rocket launches and astronaut transportation), 2. satellite internet (Starlink) and 3. artificial intelligence (xAI, which is behind Grok, from the X platform).

In its core business, space launches, the company disrupted the industry thanks to its booster reuse technology. While competitors burn through an entire rocket on each mission, SpaceX's efficiency enables margins well above what is estimated for its peers. The number of missions jumped from 61 in 2022 to 165 in 2025, and today the company flies missions for private customers, NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense and space agencies, placing satellites, cargo and crews into orbit. Also worth highlighting is the Starship rocket, the largest and most powerful spacecraft ever built, designed to be fully reusable; if successful, Starship will make missions to the Moon and Mars feasible.

As for Starlink, the satellite internet service has 10.3 million active users worldwide, and its customer base includes consumers in rural areas, commercial aviation, the maritime sector and infrastructure partnerships with mobile carriers. On top of that comes Starshield, the military version of the network, which holds contracts with the Pentagon. This arm of the company focuses on generating recurring revenue through monthly subscriptions.

The company also chose to incorporate the operations of xAI, the creator of the Grok artificial intelligence. However, the AI front already absorbs the largest share of the conglomerate's investments, and revenues have not kept pace with the Capex invested. In light of this, this mismatch can be considered one of the main risks of the SpaceX IPO, since Starlink is the only division generating positive cash flow and accounts for most of the company's revenue, while the company posted a significant net loss in 2025 and invested heavily, mostly in artificial intelligence. In early 2026, revenue kept growing, but at a slower pace than in the previous year. In this sense, the slowdown in revenue combined with rising Capex becomes a warning sign.

Revenue (US$ billions) x Net Margin (%) (Source: Form S-1 and The New York Times)

With a disruptive business model and innovative trends, as well as a leader known for the success of his businesses, such as Musk, who claims he will be surprised if SpaceX's revenue does not exceed US$1 trillion by 2031, the question remains: is it worth investing in the company right now?

The statistics do not favor those who buy in the heat of the moment. A Truist Wealth survey of 30 major tech IPOs over the past 15 years showed an average decline of around 55% in the first year of trading. At US$135 per share, the company arrives on the stock exchange valued at roughly 94 times its 2025 revenue, and, as Leonardo Andreoli, investment specialist at Hike Capital, told InfoMoney: “it is an extremely high-risk growth thesis, not an obvious buy”. Therefore, portfolio exposure to the IPO depends on the investor's profile: high-risk assets can offer high returns, but pricing in an environment of euphoria significantly increases uncertainty.

Furthermore, the listing in the United States highlights the technological rivalry between the U.S. and China, in which the world's two largest economies adopt different financing models. While the United States raised money on Wall Street, in the financial markets, China relies on state-owned companies, long-term planning and public resources. The ongoing dispute for global influence is in the spotlight with the IPO, which encompasses three areas of utmost interest for the geopolitical future: space, communications and AI.

In an article by G1, Álvaro Machado Dias, a professor at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp), commented that projects such as Starship, future orbital data processing centers and initiatives related to lunar infrastructure require a scale of resources that can hardly be sustained by traditional private investors alone, and it is in this context that the financial markets gain relevance.

In short, the SpaceX IPO goes far beyond the listing of an innovative company. The event shows how developed capital markets are capable of mobilizing large volumes of capital at competitive costs to finance long-term, technology-intensive projects with high potential for economic transformation. In this context, the financial markets play a fundamental role in connecting investors' savings to financing needs, allowing innovative projects to find the resources they need to grow, create jobs, raise productivity and drive technological progress.

For Brazil, the lesson is clear. Sustainable economic development also depends on strengthening the domestic capital markets, broadening companies' access to long-term sources of financing and reducing dependence on bank credit. A more robust market, with greater investor participation and an environment favorable to new IPOs, can help close the country's innovation gap. The SpaceX case shows that, when there is a deep and efficient capital market, companies with ambitious projects are able to turn innovation into economic growth and technological leadership.